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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”