Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
